Market Update (Jun 21 2022)

Posted On Jun 21, 2022 |

As every day, here is our daily market update. Find out what has influenced the price and what we expect in the coming days.

Afternoon kids, I hope you're all rosey. (The below update is good, I feel potentially one of my best).

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So, today I have had a bit of dive into loads of macro metrics and I feel like this has really cemented my opinion that the bottom for crypto is still not in. I think that due to the macro conditions with the FED tightening, we still don't know if the economy is going to go through a significant recession. It is likely that we will, as inflation is likely to persist and corporate earnings are likely to go lower due to less spending in the economy and higher prices of costs; higher costs, lower revenue = reduced profit margins. Stocks are traded by their Earnings (or Revenues) multiples, so Apple might trade @ 20x for instance. Over the last few months this multiple has come down as investors become more conservative. We're now likely to see the earnings part come down, so the original denominator that is being multiplied (to work out a value placed on a stock) will actually be less. For this reason I think the risk-off approach in markets will continue and I think crypto is a part of this even though it is not directly the same.

My feeling is we have an ok week or so. I think we can range higher but I wouldn't bet the house on it. I think we will then be entering the waters of the July Inflation print (everyone will be scared), and we'll see some further risking off. Ultimately I think Bitcoin retests $18,000 (I would be very confident on this also), and I think over the coming months, we could even test $13,000, but I think that then may be the low. HOWEVER, it is difficult to be calling price targets as the main ones have been reached too early in this tightening macro cycle. So, with this noted, we have to be agile and be open to lower prices as that is the current direction. What we're effectively looking for is for the FED to say they have reached an interest rate that is high enough to curb inflation and they're basically going to continue increasing rates, but less aggressively, until we get that, we continue as we are.

In the very short-term (the next week or so), I think Bitcoin could possibly reach something like $23,000, but I wouldn't hold my breath for loads more than that.

I continue to remain vigilant and I feel myself getting more excited with the potential of a $13,000 Bitcoin knowing I have been sat solely in cash for the last 6-7 months. And let's just say Bitcoin does go to $13,000, where does Ether go? $700? $600? $500? Would definitely be possible if Bitcoin goes to $13,000.

As I have said for a while now, this is the time to be here; $500 - $700 Ether, what can that earn you over the next 2-3 years? 10x your money? I'd say that would be being fair. Getting in at those prices and having the conviction to hold is what makes millionaires, not turning up in a bull market and hoping to make a quick buck. Now is the time to be here.

Categories: Market Update

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